Seasonality and determinants of moderate and severe COPD exacerbations in the TORCH study.
Eur Respir J. 2011 Jul 7;
Authors: Jenkins CR, Celli B, Anderson JA, Ferguson GT, Jones PW, Vestbo J, Yates JC, Calverley PM
We investigated the impact of season relative to other determinants of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation frequency in a long-term international study of patients with FEV1 <60% predicted. COPD exacerbations were defined by worsening symptoms requiring systemic corticosteroids and/or antibiotics (moderate) or hospital admission (severe). Seasonality effect was calculated as the proportion of patients experiencing an exacerbation each month Exacerbations in the Northern and Southern regions showed an almost two-fold increase in the winter months. No seasonal pattern occurred in the Tropics. Overall, 38% of exacerbations were treated with antibiotics only, 19% with systemic corticosteroids only and 43% with both, while 20% required hospital admission irrespective of the season. Exacerbation frequency was associated with older age, lower body mass index, lower FEV1 %predicted, and history of prior exacerbations. Females and patients with worse baseline breathlessness by MRC score exacerbated more often (rate ratio (RR) male versus female 0.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7, 0.8; p<0.001; RR MRC dyspnoea grade 3 versus 1+2 combined 1.1, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.2; p<0.001). The effect of season was independent of these risk factors. COPD exacerbations and hospitalisations are more frequent in winter.
PMID: 21737561 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]