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This interactive graphic provides information on past and present Ebola outbreaks, as well as on the current understanding of the Ebola virus and its effects in humans.

The graphic, including our outbreak map, will be updated and expanded as more information becomes available.

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The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported.

To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic.

In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities.

The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely.

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There has clearly been a deluge of international press coverage of the recent outbreak of Ebolavirus in Africa and is partly related to the "fear factor" that comes across when one is confronted with the fact that once infected, not only is the speed of death in a majority of cases rapid but also the images of the cause of death such as bleeding from various orifices gruesome and frightening.

The fact that it leads to infection and death of health care providers (10% during the current epidemic) and the visualization of protective gear worn by these individuals to contain such infection adds to this "fear factor". Finally, there is a clear perceived notion that such an agent can be utilized as a bioterrorism agent that adds to the apprehension. Thus, in efforts to gain an objective view of the growing threat Ebolavirus poses to the general public, it is important to provide some basic understanding for the lethality of Ebolavirus infection that is highlighted in Fig. 1.

This virus infection first appears to disable the immune system (the very system needed to fight the infection) and subsequently disables the vascular system that leads to blood leakage (hemorrhage), hypotension, drop in blood pressure, followed by shock and death. The virus appears to sequentially infect dendritic cells disabling the interferon system (one of the major host anti-viral immune systems) then macrophages (that trigger the formation of blood clots, release of inflammatory proteins and nitric oxide damaging the lining of blood vessels leading to blood leakage) and finally endothelial cells that contribute to blood leakage. The virus also affects organs such as the liver (that dysregulates the formation of coagulation proteins), the adrenal gland (that destroys the ability of the patient to synthesize steroids and leads to circulation failure and disabling of regulators of blood pressure) and the gastro-intestinal tract (leading to diarrhea).

The ability of the virus to disable such major mechanisms in the body facilitates the ability of the virus to replicate in an uncontrolled fashion leading to the rapidity by which the virus can cause lethality. Various laboratories have been working on defining such mechanisms utilizing in vitro culture systems, a variety of animal models including inbred strains of normal and select gene knock out mice, guinea pigs and nonhuman primates that have led to a better understanding of the potential mechanisms involved.

There have also been some major advances made in the identification of therapies from the very simple (major supportive type of therapy), to the identification of a number of highly effective chemotherapeutic agents, a variety of highly effective preventive (demonstrating 100% effectiveness in nonhuman primate models) recombinant formulations (adenovirus based, VSV-based, rabies virus based), therapeutic candidate vaccines (cocktail of monoclonal antibodies such as ZMAPP) and alternate approaches (RNAi-based such as TKM-Ebola and antisense based such as AVI-7537) that show great promise and at an unprecedented rate of discovery that speaks well for the scientific research community at large.

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The purpose of this report is to emphasize the potential utility for the use of melatonin in the treatment of individuals who are infected with the Ebola virus. The pathological changes associated with an Ebola infection include, most notably, endothelial disruption, dissiminated intravascular coagulation and multiple organ hemorrhage. Melatonin has been shown to target these alterations.

Numerous similarities between Ebola virus infection and septic shock have recognized for more than a decade. Moreover, melatonin has been successfully employed for the treatment of sepsis in many experimental and clinical studies. Based on these factors, since the number of treatments currently available is limited and the useable products are not abundant, the use of melatonin for the treatment of Ebola virus infection is encouraged. Additionally, melatonin has a high safety profile, is readily-available and can be orally-self administered; thus, the use of melatonin is compatible with the large scale of this serious outbreak.

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID: 25262626 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

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