The tumour-node metastasis (TNM) classification system is anatomically based. We investigated whether the addition of simple physiological variables, age and body mass index (BMI), would affect survival curves, i.e. a composite anatomical and physiological staging system.
We retrospectively analysed a prospectively validated thoracic surgery database (n = 1981). Cox multivariate analysis was performed to determine possible significant factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed with combined anatomical and physiological factors. Cox multivariate analysis revealed age (P < 0.001) and BMI (P = 0.01) as significant factors affecting survival. Receiver operating curve analysis determined cut-off levels for age of 67 and BMI of 27.6. A composite anatomical and physiological survival curve based on TNM for BMI > 27.6 and age < 67 was produced. Age and BMI criteria resulted in significantly different survival curves, for stage I (P < 0.0001) and stage II (P = 0.0032), but not for stage III (P = 0.06).
Neural network analysis confirmed the importance of BMI and age above cancer stage with regard to long-term survival. Combining age < 67, BMI > 27.6 and TNM anatomical classification results gives very different estimated survival curves from the usual TNM system. Patients from stages I, II and III may have survival equivalent to a stage higher or lower depending on their age and BMI.
Authors: Poullis M, McShane J, Shaw M, Woolley S, Shackcloth M, Page R, Mediratta N
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